Seattle, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS66 KSEW 222244
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
244 PM PST Sun Feb 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-low will continue to spin offshore as the pattern
remains active into the new week. Recurring spells of lowland
rain and mountain snow is favored. Temperatures will tread
slightly below to near average throughout the next several days.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad troughing remains fixed across the NE PAC with ridging over
the Intermountain West. In the Northwest, the aforementioned
broad trough/upper-low complex continues to barrel an occluded
980mb frontal system into the region. This feature has lead to
breezy winds, lowland rain and mountain snow. Low- topped
thunderstorms have also been observed this afternoon as low to
mid-level lapse rates range anywhere between 7 to 7.5 c/km. This
environment along with meager CAPE has done just enough leading
to lightning strikes over the coastal waters and WA coast.

For tonight, moisture associated with a weak to moderate AR will
funnel into the region - increasing the coverage of widespread
lowland rain and lifting snow levels up to 3,000 to 4,000 ft.
Cross-Cascade gradients remain negative and with steadier
precipitation rates in concert with offshore flow, snow should
become the dominant precipitation type overnight as hi-res
models reflect evaporative cooling very well. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded and now includes Snoqualmie and White
Pass. Overnight lows are to bottom into the lower 40s.

Mountain snow and lowland rain will gradually progress off and
away on Monday as steadier rain transitions to showers by the
afternoon- evening. 24-hour rainfall totals ending Monday
evening range between 0.50 to 1.00" of QPF for much of the
lowlands. Lowlands north of Everett will see 0.25 to 0.50". NBM
has a 30-40% chance of rainfall exceeding an inch Olympia south.
The bulk of the moisture will remain over Oregon and eastward
on Tuesday as a transient ridge replaces it. Can`t rule out
straggling showers during the day - mainly over the mountains
with aid of orographics but it`ll be the drier day here in the
short-term forecast. High temperatures will top out in the mid
to upper 40s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models have the upper-low center becoming closed off from the
mean flow in the long-term. Guidance suggests a rex block
forming over the NE PAC as a high center noses into the Bering
Sea while sitting on the northern periphery of the upper-low.
This set-up puts us under a regime of northwesterly flow aloft
through Sunday with embedded systems, maintaining the chance of
PoPs daily. No threat for heavy precipitation is on horizon
according to the latest ECMWF/GFS ensemble runs but we`ll keep a
look out. The NBM suggests temperatures will be near average
through the long-term forecast.

McMillian

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level flow will continue to shift more southwesterly today as
a frontal system continues to move inland. Conditions this afternoon
are generally VFR with isolated areas of MVFR in lower ceilings.
Gusty winds along the frontal system have likely peaked, but another
round of showers and gusty winds along the coast early this
afternoon will continue to shift inland throughout the afternoon and
evening hours. Precipitation will continue overnight and into Monday
morning before shifting southward of the Puget Sound by Monday
evening. Flight conditions will follow a gradual deteriorating trend
across western Washington this evening, with ceilings lowering and
visibility reductions across nearly all terminals. Widespread MVFR
can be expected later this evening, with widespread IFR conditions
favored by Monday morning as fog and low stratus expand across the
region alongside the rain.

KSEA...VFR this afternoon with some clearing ahead of the next round
of rain and breezy winds. Another round of rainfall this evening
will likely bring conditions down to MVFR in lowered ceilings and
reduced visibility. Conditions will continue to deteriorate into
Monday morning, where probabilities for IFR conditions to develop
remain fairly steady (30% to 40% chance of ceilings below 1000 feet
after 15z Mon). Rain will continue at the terminal through the early
afternoon Monday, with potential for MVFR to IFR ceilings to linger
after the rain ends Monday afternoon. Surface winds will generally
remain out of the SE to SW around 10 to 15 kt through the afternoon
with another potential round of gusty winds reaching 25-30 kt before
gradually easing this evening.

15

.MARINE...
Winds across the outer waters will continue to gradually ease and
shift more southwesterly today as a frontal system stemming from a
deep low pressure system well offshore continues to move inland.
Small Craft winds will hold on a little longer across the inland
waters, with southerly winds tapering off overnight. Seas will also
continue a lowering trend today as a large southerly swell moves out
of the area, with seas easing to about 8 to 12 feet overnight
tonight. Seas are expected to decrease to below 10 feet by Monday
afternoon alongside easing winds offshore.

A weaker frontal system will then move across the area waters on
Monday and will be followed by high pressure building back over the
coastal waters in its wake. Another frontal system will cross area
waters on Wednesday, with potential for westerly winds through the
Strait of Juan de Fuca to reach gale force on Wednesday and
Thursday. Gusts over the coastal waters may also reach Small Craft
levels on Wednesday and Thursday.

Seas will gradually subside towards 6 to 8 feet through the day on
Monday and further ease towards 5 to 7 feet by Tuesday. Waves will
build to around 8 to 10 feet over the outer coastal waters by
Thursday, with another round of seas reaching 9 to 12 feet over the
coastal waters by the end of the week.

15

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.


&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for San Juan
     County.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
     Monday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades
     of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of
     Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit
     Counties.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Grays
     Harbor Bar-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

     Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
     Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
     Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
     Monday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
     Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
     Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
     Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
     James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
     To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
     Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$